Y2K...15?

Stock Market CrashHaven't the last 5 years been nice?

Has your 401k or IRA finally recovered it's losses from the previous 9 years?


If so, good! It's about time!

It's nice to see investment balances up a little better than they were 15 years ago, right? (We won't mention how a CD would have made you more money)

Is it possible that the next year, two, or three, could rob you of your gains?

I'm going on a limb and making a prediction. Of course I can't tell the future, but I can recognize patterns from years of stock market experience. In fact, I trained over 200 students how to trade stocks and options and watch for patterns.

PREDICTION:

We'll see down years in 2015 and 2016

 

RECOMMENDATION:

I legally can't give you one, especially since I'm guessing and because I'm no longer licensed to tell you where to put your retirement funds.

Also, each of you have unique circumstances and I would have to know your situation better before referring you to my investment advisor for better options.


I will warn you that whenever people become complacent about their money in retirement accounts, don't get worried, and are actually excited, that's the exact time many lose a lot in their accounts.

Why am I convinced there will be a Y2K15?

Because history tends to repeat itself in the markets, especially when political decisions are being made. Also, have you noticed that the market hasn't gone down for awhile? Guess when the market looked similar to when it does now?

See the S&P 500 chart below....

SP500Chart 1994ThruOct2014


Notice 1994 to 2000?

It went up for 6 years in a row, and then down 3 years. It wasn't until 2007 (4 years in a row) when it barely hit the highs of 2000...and then it went down again for 2 more years, and finally hit 2000's highs in 2013.

So up for 6 years, down for 3 years. Up for 4 years, down for 2 years, right? It's pretty typical to see twice as many "up" years as there are "down" years.

Guess what? If 2014 stays near where it is, this will be the 6th year in a row that the market went up, just like the mid-late 1990's before we hit Y2K!

Could we be at, or near, the top of the market right now?

Could NOW be the best time to find OTHER WAYS to make your retirement money increase in case of future down years?

My hope is that when it does happen, and it will at some point, that you will be quick to act and find other ways to make money rather than waiting ANOTHER 7-13 years to make your money back.

Note: I was typing this when the market was just starting to decline that day from 17,000 points. We'll see how this plays out.

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